Hamburg 2012

Dear ladies and gentlemen,

you are invited to join the next meeting of the German OR Society (GOR) working group on Forecasting Methods.

The meeting will be held May 3rd & 4th 2012, and is hosted by the Beiersdorf AG in their headquarters in Hamburg, Germany. The topics of this meeting will focus on forecasting for fast moving consumer goods manufacturers, in line with the expertise of our hosts. Due to the international background of the speakers, the meeting will be held both in English and German. The provisional agenda of presentations is below. Lunch and Coffee breaks will be provided.

Thursday, 3rd May 2012, Tutorial & Presentations

  • Tutorial on Forecasting with SAP APO-DP – an Introduction to Exponential Smoothing for Business Practitioners (optional, ca. 180 minutes)
    Dr. Sven F. Crone, Assistant Professor & Director of the Centre for Forecasting, Lancaster University
  • Welcome Address & Advanced Planning at Beiersdorf: Integrating Forecasting into Demand, Supply, Production and Network Planning
    Ralf Wielage, Director SCM Plan, Beiersdorf AG, HQ, Hamburg
  • Forecasting with SAP APO-DP: A tale of Human Experts vs. Automated Systems?
    Michael Tramnitzke, Global Category Team Leader Packaging Materials, Beiersdorf AG, HQ, Hamburg
  • Demand Sensing: Better Math to Navigate Volatile Markets
    Robert F. Byrne, Chief Executive Officer, Terra Technology, Norwalk, CO, USA
  • Improving Supply Chain Forecasting
    Prof. Robert Fildes, Distinguished Professor, Lancaster University Management School, Centre for Forecasting, Lancaster, UK
  • Social get-together for Networking (tbd)

Friday, 4th May 2012, Presentations & Discussions

  • The Impact of Cross-functional Forecasting for Logistics at Coca-Cola AG (presented in German)
    Dr. Michael Bell, Head of Logistics (Bavaria), Coca-Cola AG, Erlangen
  • Automatic Forecasting & Replenishment of Weather Dependent Products with SAP F&R (presented in German)
    Dr. Norman Götz, Head of Logistics, Forecasting & Replenishment, EDEKA LUNAR GmbH, Hamburg
  • Daily Web Crawling & Scraping to Forecast Market Trends and Disruptions in Real Time
    Janko Thyson, Research Associate, WFI Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt, Ingolstadt
    Best Practices in Supply Chain Forecasting? First Insights from Survey Feedback of 200+ Companies
    Dr. Sven F. Crone, Matt Weller, Lancaster University Management School, Centre for Forecasting, UK

Registration deadline is 25th April 2012. The number of attendees is limited. Registration is free for members of the German OR Society (application forms can be found online:, workshop presenters and employees of the hosting organisation only. Registration for all others costs €100.- (academic institutions) or €200.- (company representatives). Payment details are provided upon registration.

To register for the workshop, please email your name, company, German OR-membership details (if applicable) and full address details (for invoicing) to Holger Kömm:

For all other enquiries please contact the local chair, Dr. Sven F. Crone:

We look forward to welcoming you in Hamburg.



If you are interested in the presentations, please contact Prof. Dr. Ulrich Küsters (